High-grade iron ore seeks out its place in steel decarbonization journey

As the steel industry seeks to lower its carbon footprint, the use of transitional fuels with green hydrogen as an end-goal in the direct-reduction iron process has emerged as one of the preferred routes, putting the limelight on high-grade iron ore and its scarcity.

This has given rise to capital expenditures in various new projects in Latin America, Africa and the Middle East touting high-grade products and facilities to pelletize and reduce them – even as mandatory use of low-carbon steel has all yet to be secured through regulatory regimes in most parts of the world.

But as China carves out its own path toward steel decarbonization, its iron ore buying habits over the past two years – a time when its steel industry has come under strain from a slowdown in its property sector and weakened steel demand – raise important questions as to whether high-grade iron ore will get to live out its vaunted purpose of turning the industry greener – or whether the flight by steelmakers to lower-grade material as a cost-saving measure would leave it in a constant search for a longer-term home.

Expansion of high-grade iron ore projects

With the notable drive towards decarbonization, the market saw significant investments in multiple projects across the globe, with fresh high-grade iron ore supply expected to come online during 2025, mostly originating from Brazil, Canada and West Africa. Considering the nameplate capacities of these projects, the market may see a new supply of high-grade iron ore fines and pellet feed totaling around 120 million mt injected into the market by 2027-28, with most projects to commence production in 2025.

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Maritime Trade Routes Reshuffling Once More

The global seaborne trade routes appear to be steadily return to their “factory settings” after a series of positive developments over the past few weeks. However, everything is still shaky and could reverse at any time. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Xclusiv said that “in a notable development for global trade, the United States and China have agreed to temporarily ease a selection of tariffs and sanctions, marking a significant de-escalation in their ongoing trade tensions. Under the agreement, the U.S. has reduced tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30% for a 90-day window, while China has lowered its tariffs on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%. This move has already had a measurable impact on the shipping industry, with a surge in freight volumes expected as businesses accelerate shipments to take advantage of the tariff reprieve. Companies are racing to import goods ahead of any potential reimplementation of higher duties”.

The shipbroker added that “shipping firms, including ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd (ZIM), have reported increased demand, with their stock performance reflecting renewed market confidence. However, despite the short-term boost, the temporary nature of these tariff reductions has injected a degree of uncertainty into the sector. Industry players remain cautiously optimistic, recognizing that the core issues underpinning U.S.–China trade tensions remain unresolved. Moreover, analysts have raised concerns about potential supply chain congestion due to the sudden spike in cargo movement, drawing parallels to the disruptions experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic. While the tariff reductions offer immediate relief and stimulate shipping activity, the long-term outlook hinges on the durability of this truce and the broader geopolitical environment”.

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Baltic index down on lower capesize rates

The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index, which measures shipping rates for vessels transporting dry bulk commodities, fell on Monday, ending a two-session winning streak, as softer capesize rates weighed on the market.

The main index, which monitors rates for capesize, panamax and supramax shipping vessels, was down 41 points, or 3%, to 1,347.

The capesize index lost 130 points, or 6%, to 1,888.

Average daily earnings for capesize vessels, which typically transport 150,000-ton cargoes such as iron ore and coal, fell $1,080 to $15,656.

Iron ore futures fell on Monday, pressured by weaker-than-expected economic data from top consumer China and uncertain near-term demand for the steelmaking material.

The panamax index inched up 3 points, or 0.2%, to 1,293.

Average daily earnings for panamax vessels, which usually carry 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grain, gained $27 to $11,635.

Among smaller vessels, the supramax index was up 2 points at 980.

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Prompt cargoes weigh on North Sea differentials, but traders see recovery ahead

While an ongoing excess of prompt cargoes has kept North Sea crude differentials moving sideways around multi-month lows, traders have remained optimistic for a recovery ahead, with an ongoing mixed structure seen across the two forward months encompassed in the Brent CFD complex similarly suggesting the market has found a floor.

An overhang of WTI Midland cargoes arriving across May and June in recent weeks has been pinpointed as a catalyst for the collapse of differentials of adjacent crudes in the Dated Brent basket, creating a difficult environment for sweet barrels to find homes.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, last assessed differentials for WTI Midland on a CIF Rotterdam basis at a 69.5 cents/b premium to Dated Brent May 14, hovering around a three-month low of a 67-cent/b premium as copious offering activity continues in the Platts Market on Close assessment process.

In fact, MOC sessions in recent weeks have seen some of the highest number of offers for WTI Midland left outstanding in the MOC since its introduction to the Dated Brent basket in 2023, with the highest being nine outstanding offers reached in the April 29 session.

Sources suggested that strong supply was at least partially responsible for the ongoing trend of relatively early public cargo nominations into the Cash BFOE chaining mechanism, with a lack of attractive bids in the over-the-counter market incentivizing the placement of some early-June Midland arrivals into chains.

Despite the looming prompt overhang, sentiment seemed to have taken an upbeat turn with market participants not seeing much further downside from recent lows.

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The role of e-fuels in Maritime decarbonisation: insights from the New Energies Coalition study

The maritime sector is at a critical juncture in its journey towards decarbonisation. As global regulations tighten and pressure mounts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, alternative fuels such as e-fuels are emerging as a viable solution. A recent study conducted by the New Energies Coalition, in collaboration with France Gaz Maritime, EVOLEN, and Ricardo plc, provides key insights into the potential of e-fuels to drive sustainable transformation in the shipping industry.

The significance of e-fuels in shipping

E-fuels, produced using renewable electricity and green hydrogen, offer a promising route to significantly lower emissions in the maritime sector. The study evaluates the environmental performance of e-fuels, including hydrogen, e-ammonia, e-methanol, and e-methane, with a focus on their lifecycle emissions and compliance with FuelEU Maritime regulations.

The findings indicate that all assessed e-fuels can meet the FuelEU Maritime GHG intensity limits at least until 2040, and in most cases, until 2045—even under conservative emission scenarios. Optimised production and usage pathways could lead to over 90% GHG reductions compared to conventional fossil fuels, ensuring compliance with the 2050 FuelEU targets.

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Brazilian grain shipments up 9% as China seeks US alternative

Between January and April 2025, Brazilian grain shipments rose 9% y/y, supported by strong Chinese purchasing. As China imposed higher tariffs on cargoes from the US, the country sought alternative suppliers, such as Brazil,” says Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at BIMCO.

The ramp-up in exports has been supported by a 9% increase in the soya bean harvest, according to estimates by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Shipments were weakest in January due to a delay in the harvest, but they quickly ramped up in February, driving an increase in ship congestion. Soya beans account for 71% of Brazilian grain shipments while maize accounts for 27%.

China is a key importer of global and Brazilian grain shipments, making up respectively 25% and 53% of total shipments. Due to lower prices, China has gradually increased purchases of Brazilian cargoes over the last 10 years at the expense of US shipments. Since March 2025, US-China grain shipments have reduced further due to a 125 percentage points increase in import tariffs on US grains. Year-to-date, this has contributed to a 54% y/y reduction in US-China grain shipments while Brazil to China shipments have risen 9%.

“The pick-up in Brazilian grain exports has been positive for tonne mile demand in the panamax segment which transported 82% of cargoes in 2024. Due to their above average sailing distances, grain shipments from Brazil account for 19% of the segment’s tonne mile demand, despite comprising only 9% of its cargo volume. However, this has not been enough to keep the Baltic Panamax Index from falling 35% y/y so far in 2025,” says Gouveia.

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Dry Bulk Market: Capesizes Supported by Tightening of Tonnage

The Capesize market maintained a generally firm tone this week, supported by a tightening of tonnage in both the Pacific and North Atlantic, alongside a steady flow of cargo. In the Pacific, early-week momentum was driven by active miners on the C5 route and healthy operator volumes, while a notably shorter tonnage list helped sustain sentiment despite some mid-week stagnation and a holiday-induced slowdown on Thursday. Rates on C5 hovered around the $8.00 mark, although fixing volumes tapered off later in the week. On the South Brazil and West Africa to China routes, the market held relatively stable, though the length of the ballaster list continued to cap upside potential. The C3 index slipped from $19.845 at the start of the week to $19.345 by week’s end. The North Atlantic remained more encouraging, with consistent spot cargoes on both Transatlantic and Fronthaul routes. Tightening tonnage and firm fixtures mid-to-late week culminated in a strong Fronthaul fixture resulting in the C9 index pushing up by $1,126 today to end the week at $38,719.

Panamax

This week was characterized by fragmented activity due to various holidays around the world. In the Atlantic basin, fresh demand was minimal, but with a modest tonnage count, rates remained steady for most of the limited trans-Atlantic and front haul fixtures. Notably, a scrubber-fitted 82,000-dwt vessel delivered in the Spanish Mediterranean secured a rate of $17,750 for a trip via North Coast South America to the Far East. South America saw little change throughout the week, with rates starting to feel some pressure for end-May arrivals in Asia, and only a few fixtures emerging. Asia, also affected by holidays, lacked momentum despite increased coal demand from Indonesia and Australia. Indonesian round coal trips were the most active, starting the week around $11,500 but dropping to approximately $10,850 by week’s end. With minimal support from the FFA market, there was limited period news. However, at the start of the week, an 82,000-dwt vessel delivered in China achieved a rate of $12,000 for 8/10 month’s period.

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