The Week in Alt Fuels: Fuel reckoning | Maritime Hiring

A war-driven oil shock has once again exposed shipping’s vulnerability to fossil fuel dependence and reinforced the need to shift to low- and zero-emission bunker fuels.

The ongoing Middle East conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have roiled global oil and gas markets. The front-month ICE Brent crude futures contract topped $100/bbl earlier this week, a staggering $27/bbl rise from around $73/bbl before the war started.

For bunker buyers, the fallout has been painful.

Conventional fuel availability has tightened at major hubs like ARA and Singapore. Bunkering in Fujairah and Khor Fakkan has been thrown into uncertainty over fuel loadings.

Rallying crude prices, bunker supply squeezes and surging demand have sent bunker prices into a frenzy this month. VLSFO and HSFO benchmarks have shot up by $268–314/mt in Rotterdam and by $405–617/mt in Singapore. Singapore’s LSMGO price has surged $1,112/mt higher so far this month, pushed up by a $344/mt gain in low-sulphur gasoil futures and severely tight supply.

This fallout from the war has once again exposed shipping’s vulnerability to geopolitical shocks and conventional fuel supply disruptions.

“The Middle East crisis has clearly shown that reliance on a small number of petrostates for global trade and global energy security is potentially outdated,” Em Fenton, senior director for climate diplomacy at Opportunity Green, told ENGINE.

“Actually what we should be looking towards is a just and equitable transition to a globally decentralised energy economy that will support the shipping, or even the aviation industry, and ensure net-zero emissions. And I think that [the Middle East crisis] we’re seeing at the moment is a very good argument to invest in truly net-zero alternative fuels.

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Eurozone economy in the line of fire

 War, China and tariffs

The eurozone economy is one of the most vulnerable to the Middle East war among the major economies. Although we anticipate that rising energy prices will be a temporary phenomenon, their negative impact is undeniable. At the same time, it’s important to remember that other structural challenges, such as strong competition from China and ongoing US trade tariffs, persist. And while the European Parliament has suspended ratification of the US trade deal following the Supreme Court’s move to strike down parts of Trump’s tariff package, we see little reason to expect a meaningful easing of tariffs anytime soon.

Slowing, but not halting the recovery

For Europe, higher energy prices essentially act as a foreign tax on households and businesses. Thanks to a high savings ratio, European consumers should generally be able to absorb these increased costs. However, the risk remains that diminished confidence could prompt households to save even more, rather than less.

The manufacturing sector faces renewed difficulties, having already endured higher energy costs compared to the US and China. Despite these challenges, manufacturing entered the year with some momentum, supported by relatively low inventory levels. Additionally, Germany’s fiscal stimulus is expected to gradually bolster the economy. As a result, we believe the current crisis will temporarily slow the recovery but not halt it altogether. We are forecasting weaker growth in the first half of the year, followed by a rebound in the second half, culminating in 1.1% GDP growth for 2026, after 1.5% in 2025.

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Performance Shipping Inc. Signs Shipbuilding Contracts for the Construction of Two Newbuilding Suezmax Tankers

Performance Shipping Inc., a global shipping company specializing in the ownership of tanker vessels, announced that, through two separate wholly-owned subsidiaries, it has signed two shipbuilding contracts with China Shipbuilding Trading Co. Ltd. (“CSTC”) and Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding Co. Ltd. (“SWS”) for the construction of two 158,000 DWT newbuilding Suezmax tanker vessels.

The vessels are expected to be delivered in October 2028 and May 2029, respectively, at a contract price of US$81.5 million per vessel. 15% of the purchase price is payable upon receipt of a refund guarantee; 10% of the purchase price is payable at each of the milestones of steel cutting, keel laying, and launching of the vessels; and the remaining 55% of the purchase price is payable upon the delivery of the vessels.

Commenting on the contracts, Andreas Michalopoulos, the Company’s Chief Executive Officer, stated:

“The signing of these two Suezmax newbuilding contracts expands our presence in a segment with constructive medium- and long-term market fundamentals. Our fleet is primarily comprised of Aframax/LR2 vessels, and with two Suezmax tankers currently on the water, this transaction is poised to double our exposure to the segment, reflecting our disciplined capital allocation approach and confidence in the Suezmax market.

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Robotization Wave Hits Shipyards

Major domestic shipbuilders are actively pursuing robot adoption. HD Hyundai, in particular, is utilizing more than 200 robots for welding, steel plate cutting, and other operations. The company has determined that robots are necessary to manufacture and deliver on time the four years’ worth of work secured through consecutive orders. As the growing number of robots raises worker anxiety, shipbuilders plan to continue discussions on employment stability through communication with labor unions.

According to industry sources on Feb. 24, as of early this month, HD Hyundai’s shipbuilding affiliates have installed a total of 211 robots (industrial and collaborative robots) at shipbuilding sites. This represents a 63.6% increase compared to the same period last year (129 units). By affiliate, HD Hyundai Heavy Industries increased its robot deployment from 73 to 131 units. HD Hyundai Samho installed 80 robots, a 42.9% increase from the same period last year (56 units).

The reason HD Hyundai is actively adopting robots is that work is overflowing. As a result of consistently securing orders since 2022, when the COVID-19 spread subsided, HD Hyundai currently holds three to four years’ worth of work. HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering, HD Hyundai’s shipbuilding intermediate holding company, secured an order backlog of $63.672 billion as of the end of last year.

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Maritime Action Plan Highlights Washington’s Misplaced Shipbuilding Obsession

On the eve of President’s Day weekend, the Trump administration released its long-awaited Maritime Action Plan (MAP), billed as a sweeping blueprint for reversing decades of US maritime decline. One of its core goals: resuscitating a commercial shipbuilding industry that has fallen into a near-total collapse.

To that end, the plan calls for a broad mix of subsidies, new fees, and mandates designed to coerce demand toward US shipyards.

Such logic is neither new nor uncontested. In a recent essay published by the Center for International Maritime Security, I examined similarly motivated legislative proposals now circulating in Washington and argued that they would impose substantial costs while failing to address the maritime challenges that actually matter. Many of those critiques apply equally to the MAP.

A Chasm of Competitiveness

The MAP declares that its objective is not merely to increase the number of ships built in the United States but to reconstitute an industrial base capable of “competitive international performance.” It further emphasizes the importance of constructing large, oceangoing commercial ships—the workhorses of global trade—rather than small craft or niche vessels.

It’s a vision sharply at odds with economic reality.

US shipyards charge roughly five times prevailing global prices for large commercial ships. As a result, few are built. Only three large oceangoing cargo ships have been delivered by US yards so far this decade (all for the protected domestic market where foreign-built vessels are prohibited by the Jones Act). Closing the chasm of competitiveness with leading international shipyards to spark domestic production would require not incremental improvement but a transformation of costs, productivity, and industrial organization on a scale not seen in modern US shipbuilding history.

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LNG discounts to LSMGO widen in major ports

Rotterdam B100’s discounts to pure HSFO, VLSFO and LSMGO have narrowed by $18-36/mt over the past week. It’s discounts to LNG has also narrowed by $68–75/mt, bringing the spread to $106-325/mt, depending on engine type and methane slip profile.

In contrast, B100’s premiums over liquefied biomethane (LBM) in Rotterdam have widened by $66–73/mt to $168–394/mt.

In Singapore, B30-VLSFO (UCOME) has flipped back to an $11/mt discount to pure VLSFO after briefly moving to a $3/mt premium last week. B100’s premium over pure VLSFO has edged $4/mt higher to $461/mt.

Liquid fuels

Conventional fuel grades in Rotterdam have declined by $18–36/mt, while B30-VLSFO has fallen by a smaller $14/mt over the past week.

The port’s B100 benchmark has remained unchanged, as a €5/mtCO2e drop in Dutch ZRE A tickets has failed to exert upward pressure on price.

VLSFO and LSMGO availability has remained tight for prompt delivery in the ARA region, with buyers advising lead times of 5-7 days, a trader told ENGINE. HSFO has been more readily available, with notice periods of 2-4 days, the trader added.

Singapore’s HSFO and VLSFO prices have slipped by $3–5/mt, while its pure LSMGO has fallen by $13/mt. The port’s B100 price has remained broadly steady with a modest $2/mt decline, while B30-VLSFO (UCOME) has dropped by a sharper $19/mt.

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China’s LNG orders tighten slots, boost Korea’s pricing power and U.S. push

As China’s shipbuilding industry has aggressively increased orders for liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers since the start of the year, some analysts say the move is paradoxically serving as a lever that boosts Korean shipbuilders’ bargaining power on prices. As China’s major shipyards chew through large volumes of low-priced orders and exhaust construction slots for delivery even after 2029, the reasoning goes, Korea will enjoy a dominant position for upcoming orders of high value-added vessels.

According to the shipbuilding industry and the financial investment sector on the 13th, the three Korean shipbuilders—Samsung Heavy Industries, HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering, and Hanwha Ocean—dismissed concerns about a China-led supply glut during their recent earnings conference calls, instead interpreting it as an opportunity to raise vessel prices and improve profitability.

China’s Hudong-Zhonghua Shipbuilding and Jiangnan Shipyard each won orders for four LNG carriers last month from shipping company TMS Cardiff Gas and Shell, respectively. As Chinese yards kicked off an order-winning relay early in the year, touting price competitiveness about 10% cheaper than Korea, some in the industry voiced concerns that the LNG carrier stronghold where Korea excels could be eroded, pushing down prices and worsening profitability.

According to Clarksons Research, the ship new building price for a 174,000-cubic-meter LNG carrier peaked at $265 million in Feb. last year before turning downward, and has stayed at around $248 million for four consecutive months recently, showing a weak trend.

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