Middle East Conflict: Straits of Hormuz Transits Remain 95% Down

Clarksons Research, the data and analytics arm of the Clarksons Group have been closely monitoring shipping activity and markets impacted by the conflict.

Summarising their latest update issued today at 12.00 am 23rd March, Steve Gordon, Global Head of Clarksons Research commented :

Strait of Hormuz transits still remain 95% down on pre-conflict levels (avg. 4 transits per day past week vs ~125 pre-conflict) with 75% of transits have been exiting the Gulf in the past week

~10 oil tankers (12m bbl) estimated to have transited through the Strait over the past 7 days (versus 250 vessels of 300m bbl in a normal week)

‘Trickle’ of very large LPG carrier transits continues, with 2 recorded yesterday and 2 Indian-linked vessels passing through the Strait today (~80% below normal over the past week)

Crude exports from Yanbu are now running at ~4m bpd (up from 1m bpd, potentially increasing to 5m bpd, and with ~40 VLCCs waiting/enroute), while arbitrage dynamics supporting long-haul US oil and gas exports

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VLCC Tanker Market Facing New Questions Regarding Direction | Rig Jobs

 LR2

MEG LR2 freight eastward climbed modestly this week. The TC1 75kt MEG/Japan index went from WS353 to WS376.

By comparison, a voyage west saw the TC20 90kt MEG/UK-Continent index came down to $7.29 million (-$143,000).

The TC15 80kt Mediterranean/East index dropped by $170,000 to $8.23 million this week with the corresponding TCE dropping to $61,300/day on Baltic description round trip.

LR1

The TC5 55kt MEG/Japan index has been assessed up by 25 points to W388.

A run west on TC8 65kt MEG/UK-Continent ended the week with the index $109,000 lower to $5.61 million.

On the UK-Continent, LR1 freight rose another 11 points this week to WS296 for the TC16 60kt ARA/West Africa index. This took the Baltic TCE for the route to $57,900/day round trip.

MR

The TC17 35kt MEG/East Africa index added 189 points to WS591 this week.

On the UK-Continent, MRs came back up this week. The TC2 37kt ARA/US-Atlantic Coast index was assessed 11 points higher than last week at WS230 with the Baltic TCE for the round trip at $19,700/day.

In the US Gulf, MR freight resurged this week. The TC14 38kt US Gulf/UK-Continent run is currently assessed at WS413 after beginning the week at WS395. The Baltic round trip TCE for the run is now at $58,200/day. The Caribbean voyage on TC21, 38kt US-Gulf/Caribbean is presently assessed at $2.03 million, the corresponding TCE is now at $93,200/day on Baltic description round trip.

The MR Atlantic Triangulation Basket TCE went from $69,100/day to $673,400/day.

Handymax

In the Mediterranean, Handymax’s on TC6, 30kt Cross-Mediterranean index climbed 32 points to WS357 this week.

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There’s no hiding place on a ship’: The sailors stranded near Iran

Drones, cruise missiles and fighter jets have become a common sight for many sailors stranded on oil tankers and freight ships in the Gulf, after Iran threatened to open fire on any vessels trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz, in response to US-Israeli attacks.

In recent days there has been a growing number of reported attacks on ships in the Gulf region, as Iran responded to attacks by the US and Israel by threatening to open fire on any vessels trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait is a key artery for shipping, both for energy supplies and vessels carrying other goods. The sudden outbreak of war has left many ships – and their sailors stranded at sea as they watch strikes play out on land around them and overhead.

“I have seen Iranian drones and cruise missiles flying at low altitude,” says Amir, a Pakistani sailor aboard an oil tanker in the United Arab Emirates that cannot leave the area. “I also hear the sound of fighter jets, but we can’t identify which country they belong to.”

What scares him the most is the thought of an intercepted drone or missile falling on his vessel.

Hein, a sailor from Myanmar, sees skirmishes every day. “Just this morning, two fighter jets fired at each other while we were still working,” he says. “There’s no specific hiding place on the ship for this, and we just had to run inside.”

We have changed their names to Amir and Hein, along with those of the other sailors at sea and their families, to protect their safety.

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The Week in Alt Fuels: Fuel reckoning | Maritime Hiring

A war-driven oil shock has once again exposed shipping’s vulnerability to fossil fuel dependence and reinforced the need to shift to low- and zero-emission bunker fuels.

The ongoing Middle East conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have roiled global oil and gas markets. The front-month ICE Brent crude futures contract topped $100/bbl earlier this week, a staggering $27/bbl rise from around $73/bbl before the war started.

For bunker buyers, the fallout has been painful.

Conventional fuel availability has tightened at major hubs like ARA and Singapore. Bunkering in Fujairah and Khor Fakkan has been thrown into uncertainty over fuel loadings.

Rallying crude prices, bunker supply squeezes and surging demand have sent bunker prices into a frenzy this month. VLSFO and HSFO benchmarks have shot up by $268–314/mt in Rotterdam and by $405–617/mt in Singapore. Singapore’s LSMGO price has surged $1,112/mt higher so far this month, pushed up by a $344/mt gain in low-sulphur gasoil futures and severely tight supply.

This fallout from the war has once again exposed shipping’s vulnerability to geopolitical shocks and conventional fuel supply disruptions.

“The Middle East crisis has clearly shown that reliance on a small number of petrostates for global trade and global energy security is potentially outdated,” Em Fenton, senior director for climate diplomacy at Opportunity Green, told ENGINE.

“Actually what we should be looking towards is a just and equitable transition to a globally decentralised energy economy that will support the shipping, or even the aviation industry, and ensure net-zero emissions. And I think that [the Middle East crisis] we’re seeing at the moment is a very good argument to invest in truly net-zero alternative fuels.

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Eurozone economy in the line of fire

 War, China and tariffs

The eurozone economy is one of the most vulnerable to the Middle East war among the major economies. Although we anticipate that rising energy prices will be a temporary phenomenon, their negative impact is undeniable. At the same time, it’s important to remember that other structural challenges, such as strong competition from China and ongoing US trade tariffs, persist. And while the European Parliament has suspended ratification of the US trade deal following the Supreme Court’s move to strike down parts of Trump’s tariff package, we see little reason to expect a meaningful easing of tariffs anytime soon.

Slowing, but not halting the recovery

For Europe, higher energy prices essentially act as a foreign tax on households and businesses. Thanks to a high savings ratio, European consumers should generally be able to absorb these increased costs. However, the risk remains that diminished confidence could prompt households to save even more, rather than less.

The manufacturing sector faces renewed difficulties, having already endured higher energy costs compared to the US and China. Despite these challenges, manufacturing entered the year with some momentum, supported by relatively low inventory levels. Additionally, Germany’s fiscal stimulus is expected to gradually bolster the economy. As a result, we believe the current crisis will temporarily slow the recovery but not halt it altogether. We are forecasting weaker growth in the first half of the year, followed by a rebound in the second half, culminating in 1.1% GDP growth for 2026, after 1.5% in 2025.

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Performance Shipping Inc. Signs Shipbuilding Contracts for the Construction of Two Newbuilding Suezmax Tankers

Performance Shipping Inc., a global shipping company specializing in the ownership of tanker vessels, announced that, through two separate wholly-owned subsidiaries, it has signed two shipbuilding contracts with China Shipbuilding Trading Co. Ltd. (“CSTC”) and Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding Co. Ltd. (“SWS”) for the construction of two 158,000 DWT newbuilding Suezmax tanker vessels.

The vessels are expected to be delivered in October 2028 and May 2029, respectively, at a contract price of US$81.5 million per vessel. 15% of the purchase price is payable upon receipt of a refund guarantee; 10% of the purchase price is payable at each of the milestones of steel cutting, keel laying, and launching of the vessels; and the remaining 55% of the purchase price is payable upon the delivery of the vessels.

Commenting on the contracts, Andreas Michalopoulos, the Company’s Chief Executive Officer, stated:

“The signing of these two Suezmax newbuilding contracts expands our presence in a segment with constructive medium- and long-term market fundamentals. Our fleet is primarily comprised of Aframax/LR2 vessels, and with two Suezmax tankers currently on the water, this transaction is poised to double our exposure to the segment, reflecting our disciplined capital allocation approach and confidence in the Suezmax market.

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Robotization Wave Hits Shipyards

Major domestic shipbuilders are actively pursuing robot adoption. HD Hyundai, in particular, is utilizing more than 200 robots for welding, steel plate cutting, and other operations. The company has determined that robots are necessary to manufacture and deliver on time the four years’ worth of work secured through consecutive orders. As the growing number of robots raises worker anxiety, shipbuilders plan to continue discussions on employment stability through communication with labor unions.

According to industry sources on Feb. 24, as of early this month, HD Hyundai’s shipbuilding affiliates have installed a total of 211 robots (industrial and collaborative robots) at shipbuilding sites. This represents a 63.6% increase compared to the same period last year (129 units). By affiliate, HD Hyundai Heavy Industries increased its robot deployment from 73 to 131 units. HD Hyundai Samho installed 80 robots, a 42.9% increase from the same period last year (56 units).

The reason HD Hyundai is actively adopting robots is that work is overflowing. As a result of consistently securing orders since 2022, when the COVID-19 spread subsided, HD Hyundai currently holds three to four years’ worth of work. HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering, HD Hyundai’s shipbuilding intermediate holding company, secured an order backlog of $63.672 billion as of the end of last year.

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