Global industrial production and containerised freight flows remained in the doldrums at the start of the third quarter, confounding predictions earlier in the year for a strong rebound.
Manufacturers and distributors in North America and Europe were struggling to reduce excess inventories after the post-pandemic rotation from goods to services spending.
Rising interest rates and a cost-of-living squeeze have also dampened expenditure on expensive long-lived durable items.
Global industrial output was up by less than 1% in the second quarter of 2023 from the same period in 2022, according to the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB).
Such slow growth has been associated in the past with cycle-ending recessions or pronounced mid-cycle slowdowns (“World trade monitor”, CPB, August 25).
The volume of world trade was actually down by almost 2% compared with the same period a year earlier, a retreat that has always been associated in the past with outright recession.
As a result, global growth is entirely dependent on the services sector as consumers boost spending on travel, tourism and other personal services in reaction to the lockdowns of 2020-2022.
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