Rapidly forming El Niño conditions over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean have increased the probability of a strong episode this winter that would likely raise temperatures and cut gas consumption in the United States.
Sea surface temperatures in the most critical region of the ocean have warmed rapidly and have been almost +1.3°C above the long-term seasonal average so far in August having started the year -0.7°C below average in January.
The speed and strength of the warming has significantly increased the probability El Niño will prevail this winter and that it could be a strong rather than a weak one.
In its latest outlook, published on August 28, the U.S. Climate Prediction Centre put the probability of El Niño occurring between December and February at more than 95% and says most models show it will be strong.
El Niño is characterised by sea surface temperatures persistently +0.5°C or more above average and a strong episode occurs when temperatures are persistently +1.5°C or more above average.
The strength of El Niño matters because a weak or moderate episode is likely to be dominated by other factors influencing the weather and have little or no observable impact on temperatures and heating demand.
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