Surprisingly soft recent growth numbers
After a solid second quarter, Greek seasonally adjusted GDP came in surprisingly soft in the third quarter of 2023, flat on the quarter (from 1.1% in 2Q23) but still amply positive on the year at +2.1% (from 2.6% in 2Q23). Lower government expenditure and soft exports were part of the explanation, together with slower consumption as pent-up demand weakened. However, consumption data looked somewhat puzzling given the country’s strong inward foreign tourism flows over the summer.
Growth-wise, the impact of floods which hit central Greece in September should have been contained in the third quarter, but more might show up in fourth quarter data, even though public funds might partly compensate. Having hit a relevant food-producing area, the floods have likely already had a role in keeping upward pressure on food prices, which, in November, were still growing at a strong 9% yearly rate.
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