Crude Oil Price Movements
In November, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value dropped by $1.47, or 2.0%, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $72.98/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract dropped by $1.98, or 2.6%, m-o-m, to average $73.40/b, while NYMEX WTI dropped by $2.02, or 2.8%, m-o-m, to average $69.54/b. GME Oman front-month contract dropped by $2.55, or 3.4%, m-o-m, to average $72.48/b. The ICE Brent-NYMEX WTI first month spread remained little changed, widening marginally by 4¢/b, m-o-m, to average $3.86/b. The forward curves of oil futures prices flattened further, with the nearest time spreads contracting but remaining in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers raised their net long positions but maintained a bearish stance on oil prices.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 3.1% for 2024 and 3.0% for 2025. The US economic growth forecast for 2024 is revised up slightly to 2.8%, reflecting robust growth in 2H24. For 2025, the US growth forecast is also revised up slightly to 2.2%. Japan’s growth forecast remains unchanged at 0.1% in 2024, but for 2025, it is revised up slightly to 1.0%. The Eurozone’s economic growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 remain unchanged at 0.8%, and 1.2%, respectively. China’s economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 4.9% for 2024 and 4.7% for 2025. India’s economic growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 remain unchanged at 6.8%, and 6.3%, respectively. The economic growth forecast for Brazil is revised up slightly to 3.1% for 2024, but remains at 2.1% for 2025. Russia’s economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 3.5% for 2024 and 1.7% for 2025.
World Oil Demand
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 is revised down by 210 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment to 1.6 mb/d, year-on-year (y-o-y). This minor adjustment is mainly due to updated data for 1Q24, 2Q24 and 3Q24. In the OECD, oil demand is expected to grow by around 0.1 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is forecast to expand by close to 1.5 mb/d in 2024. Global oil demand growth for 2025 is also revised down by 90 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment to 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y. OECD demand is expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, while demand in the non-OECD is forecast to expand by 1.3 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-DoC liquids supply (i.e. liquids supply from countries not participating in the DoC) is expected to grow by 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2024, revised up slightly from last month’s assessment. The main growth drivers are expected to be the US and Canada. For 2025, the non-DoC liquids supply growth forecast is expected to grow by 1.1 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month. Growth is anticipated to be mainly driven by the US, Brazil, Canada, and Norway. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to grow by about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2024 to average 8.3 mb/d, followed by an increase of about 80 tb/d, y-o-y, in 2025 to average 8.4 mb/d. Crude oil production by the countries participating in the DoC increased by 0.32 mb/d in November compared with the previous month, averaging about 40.67 mb/d, as reported by available secondary sources.
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