The global wheat market narrative has recently shifted, though it’s easy to have missed it.
Exportable world wheat supplies in 2024-2025 are no longer expected to fall to multiyear lows, a perhaps predictable outcome based on recent patterns.
But the relief could be temporary. Meager possibility for the upcoming wheat harvests in Russia and Ukraine, which account for about 30% of global wheat exports, means that the thinning supply story could reemerge for 2025-2026, and potentially for real this time.
Two months ago, US Department of Agriculture (USDA) projections showed 2024-2025 global wheat stocks-to-use (SU) among major exporting countries at a 17-year low of 14.56%.
But this month’s updates put that figure at 15.89%, the second highest of the last six years.
This largely owes to the slashing of Chinese wheat import estimates over the last three months.
Late last decade, global wheat SU among major exporters averaged above 18%, so the 2024-2025 target is still below the longer-term mean.
However, world wheat SU has been pegged by USDA to reach decade-plus lows each year for at least three years now, only to creep upward as the marketing years progress.
As it stands, the 2020-2021 SU of 14.74% remains the lowest since 2007-2008, so this is the benchmark to keep in mind heading into 2025-2026.
USDA’s Kyiv attache last week pegged the 2025-2026 Ukrainian wheat harvest at 17.9 million tonnes, a 13-year low and down 23% on the year. Soils were extremely dry during the planting period and profitability is poor, cutting sown area.
Russian agencies currently predict the 2025-2026 harvest between 79.7 million and 82.5 million tonnes, the latter of which is similar to a year ago.
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