Threats of further tariffs from the US and an ongoing arbitrage to West Africa have led to an unseasonal shift in European gasoline export flows.
Typically the summer driving season sees increased flows from Europe to the US Atlantic Coast amid an uptick in summer driving demand. At the same time, specification differences between Europe and WAF which exist in the summer disappear in the winter, typically resulting in fewer volumes fixed to Nigeria.
The threat of tariffs and changes in Nigeria’s refining landscape have seen this trend flip in 2025. Large volumes are presently set to arrive in West Africa’s Offshore Lome hub, while the USAC has been demanding more limited flows amid demand-side fears and tariff threats.
According to ship-tracking data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea, 4 million mt of gasoline are projected to be delivered into West Africa from all locations over the 30-day period to April 27, a high not seen in over two years.
This compares with 1.6 million mt to the USAC over the same period, reaching an 11-month high but well within normal seasonal trends.
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