Consistently rising wheat output in Australia is creating export opportunities for new entrants, particularly in the grain handling space in the Western region, where the desire for more flexible loading options is driving demand for mobile shiploaders and supporting logistics expansion.
Wheat production in the 2025-26 marketing year (October to September) is currently projected between 33 million-34 million mt, according to trade participants, nearly 27% higher than the 10-year average, based on data from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).
“Crop is going to be very big, especially if we have more rain in September,” said a trade source based in Western Australia.
“Think 12 million mt of wheat is possible for production [in Western Australia],” said another Perth-based grains trader.
For Australia — which exports at least 70% of its wheat production annually except in drought-stricken years — getting a big crop to the export market is a process fine-tuned by years of expertise in grain accumulation, logistics, shipping slots, and marketing, among other things.
Still, the efficiency of wheat exports is highly subject to a factor beyond exporters – the distribution of wheat grades and crop protein levels in different port zones, which can differ substantially depending on the weather.
“Probably around half of the total export capacity across all Australian bulk ports is in long-term agreements [LTAs], but that figure is different when considering useful export capacity. Many port zones do not have sufficient grain at the right time to maximize their export capacity, and inland logistics can be complicated. This basically makes it more complicated to plan exports out of good ports with enough volumes of wheat grades they [exporters] require,” according to a Victoria-based grains exporter.
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