As the shadow fleet expands, loss of visibility poses a growing threat to maritime safety

The shipping industry has always been good at navigating uncertainty; however the rapid expansion of the shadow fleet represents a different kind of risk. It’s not just regulatory or geopolitical; it’s informational. Each vessel that goes dark removes a small piece of the world’s safety awareness, and that loss is beginning to matter, writes Yarden Gross, CEO and Co-founder of maritime technology pioneer Orca AI.

A PARALLEL SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF SIGHT

Concern over the shadow fleet’s growth is now being voiced at senior industry level. For example, Okeanis Eco Tankers CEO Aristidis Alafouzos recently argued that the trend is not only persistent but likely to accelerate. Indeed, another six tankers and four gas carriers were blacklisted by the US administration just last week, bringing the total of Iran-sanctioned vessels to 170. Including vessels carrying Russian oil, an estimated 16% of the global crude fleet is already blacklisted, and Alafouzos warns that sanction-driven rerouting, longer voyage times and increased congestion are stretching available capacity to the point where further expansion of the dark fleet is inevitable.

Experts suggest the true number of vessels operating outside conventional oversight could already exceed 3,000, some approaching end of life or operating without insurance. These vessels have been described as “ticking time bombs” that are unlikely to return to mainstream trades and in many cases are being run to exhaustion.

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Shipping giant CMA CGM resumes Russia trade with food cargo

French-based CMA CGM, the world’s third-largest container shipping line, has resumed limited services to Russia, notably to transport food, three years after withdrawing from the country following its invasion of Ukraine, the company said.

Like other Western firms, CMA CGM halted its activities in Russia, stopping its shipping services and also divesting stakes held in port terminals.

The group’s CNC subsidiary has now relaunched the shipping of foodstuffs such as citrus fruit and coffee to Russia to meet demand from certain customers, CMA CGM said in an emailed statement.

“This activity is very limited and conducted strictly in accordance with the sanctions regime in place,” it said, without giving further details.

French daily newspaper had previously reported the development, said CMA CGM was not using its own fleet but booking space for its containers on vessels of other lines.

CMA CGM joins Swiss-based rival MSC in shipping cargo to Russia. MSC has maintained shipments there during the war in Ukraine but limited them to food, medical and humanitarian goods.

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Supporting long-term and sustainable outcomes in US shipping

With international shipping contributing approximately 2 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, the sector requires a greater steer towards meeting global 2050 net zero targets.

By adopting net zero measures, ports can evolve into clean energy precincts that reduce emissions while enhancing competitiveness. Through efforts to decarbonise operations, ports can help to streamline cargo handling and support the long-term sustainability of the sector.

Additionally, as pivotal hubs in the global supply chain which link stakeholders such as shipping companies, rail networks, and logistics providers, port operators can help facilitate practical and scalable solutions to support decarbonisation across the industry more broadly.

Approach

In 2019, Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) acquired Long Beach Container Terminal (LBCT), supporting the southern California port in its efforts to meet its Net Zero 2030 Climate Action Plan.

As part of the combined Los Angeles-Long Beach port complex – the largest cargo gateway in North America, responsible for handling approximately 30 per cent of all US container volumes – LBCT plays an important role in advancing sustainable port operations.

Partnering with MAM, LBCT developed and launched an ambitious Net Zero 2030 Climate Action Plan (“the Plan”), aimed at establishing the port as the first net zero emissions terminal in the US. The plan takes a practical approach, focusing on four key areas to address the environmental and social impacts of its operations:

Integrating zero emissions planning, processes and goals into LBCT policies, programmes, and investment decisions

2. Ensuring zero emission equipment, facilities, and infrastructure

3. Advocating for policies and funding to encourage system-wide change in goods movement

4. Incorporating community considerations into climate actions

To support the execution of the Plan, in December 2021 MAM worked with LBCT to appoint a new Director of Sustainability to drive net zero business planning alongside other sustainability initiatives.

With more than $US2.5 billion of investment over the past decade, LBCT has implemented measures that demonstrate commercial and decarbonisation goals can be achieved simultaneously.

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Diesel, jet fuel cash premiums gain amid upbeat window activity

Asia’s diesel markets softened, with the backwardation structure easing slightly as well, though spot activity on the trading window still increased pace and cash premiums rebounded.

The east-west price spreads widened back to discounts of $55 per metric ton, with markets still expecting swing suppliers to pivot their cargoes west.

At the market’s close, refining margins gained slightly to $27.8 a barrel.

Deals on the window resurfaced for the first time since November 11.

The 10ppm sulphur gasoil cash differentials rebounded to nearly $2.85 a barrel, reflecting firmer discussion levels.

Jet fuel markets remained robust, with cash premiums at three-year highs and paper markets extending gains from last Friday — with draws from the West buoying overall trading sentiment.

Regrade stayed supported at premiums of 20-30 cents per barrel.

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A.R. Savage Company Celebrates 80th Anniversary with New Partnership and International Expansion

The Tampa-based maritime company A.R. Savage Company LLC helped establish ocean shipping in Tampa Bay, with family roots in shipping dating back to before the U.S. Civil War. Now the family behind the company is celebrating 80 years of continuous family ownership and operations of their maritime company and is expanding with a new partnership to serve ports throughout the Americas from their headquarters in Tampa.

To recognize these many milestones, the company is celebrating with clients, partners and friends on the evening of Wednesday, November 12 at the University Club. The company is publishing a special edition booklet highlighting the history of the family business, which will be given to everyone in attendance.

Following WWII, Arthur Russell Savage established his company initially as a ship agent and later as an ocean freight forwarder. When Arthur’s son, Bill, married Shirley McKay, the Savage family was now connected to the McKay family, who could trace its shipping roots to the 1840s in Tampa Bay. The family patriarch Captain James McKay Sr. proved in the 1840s commercial shipping could work in Tampa Bay, notably by shipping cattle from Florida to Cuba.

Now as a ship agent and ocean freight forwarder, its operating company A.R. Savage & Son is involved in nearly every step of an ocean-going freight vessel moving through ports such as Tampa. From logistics and compliance, berthing arrangements, arranging harbor pilots, fuel refills, mooring lines, warehousing, cargo loading/unloading, customs clearing, and caring for crews.

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Somali Basin piracy surges offshore

Piracy activity off Somalia has flared sharply since late October. Coordinated Pirate Action Groups (PAGs) are using hijacked dhows as motherships to push attacks far offshore with RPGs and automatic weapons.

In the most serious case, the HELLAS APHRODITE was boarded on 06 Nov 2025 approximately 560 nm SE of Eyl after pirates in a skiff opened fire. Crew entered the citadel; EU NAVFOR Atalanta assets, including ESPS Victoria, are responding. Within the same week we assessed an attempted boarding of STOLT SAGALAND (03 Nov) and aggressive approaches against SPAR APUS and INTERTUNA TRES (02 Nov). With naval focus stretched by Red Sea tasking, the risk envelope across the offshore Somali Basin has expanded.

If your fleet routes the Somali Basin, Arabian Sea, or ESE of Somalia, you need a live operational picture that distinguishes signal from noise.

What happened (highlights)

• 06 Nov 2025, 0850 UTC – HELLAS APHRODITE (IMO 9722766): Fired upon with machine guns and RPGs and boarded ~560 nm SE of Eyl while en route Sikka–Durban. 24 crew in the citadel; no armed security embarked. EU NAVFOR assets responding.

• 03 Nov 2025, 0145 UTC – STOLT SAGALAND (IMO 9352200): Attempted boarding 332 nm ESE of Mogadishu by four armed pirates in a grey/white skiff linked to a mothership ~5 nm away. Repelled by evasive manoeuvres, speed, and return fire from embarked security; no injuries.

• 02 Nov 2025, 1700 UTC – SPAR APUS (IMO 9734989): High-speed approach 446 nm SE of Mogadishu by AIS-dark vessel at ~15 kts; deterred through course alteration (170°) and acceleration (~30 kts).

• 02 Nov 2025, 1300 UTC – INTERTUNA TRES (IMO 9202704): High-speed stern approach 350 nm ESE of Mogadishu by skiff tied to AIS-identified mothership ISSA MOHAMAD 2; withdrew after alarm raised.

• 28 Oct 2025, 1633 UTC – Two erratic dhows intercepted ~106 nm south of Eyl (near Garacad); one seized, one escaped—early indicator of PAG mobilisation.

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Ardmore Shipping Results Beat Estimates as Fleet Grows

Ardmore Shipping Corporation announced results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025.

Highlights and Recent Activity

Reported Adjusted earnings of $12.6 million and net income attributable to common stockholders of $12.1 million for the three months ended September 30, 2025, or $0.31 Adjusted earnings per basic and diluted share, compared to Adjusted earnings and net income attributable to common stockholders of $23.3 million, or $0.55 Adjusted earnings per basic and diluted share for the three months ended September 30, 2024. (See reconciliation of net income to Adjusted earnings in the Non-GAAP Measures section.)

Reported Adjusted earnings of $27.2 million and net income attributable to common stockholders of $26.7 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, or $0.67 Adjusted earnings per basic and diluted share, compared to Adjusted earnings of $109.3 million and net income attributable to common stockholders of $123.5 million, or $2.62 Adjusted earnings per basic share and $2.60 Adjusted earnings per diluted share for the nine months ended September 30, 2024. (See reconciliation of net income to Adjusted earnings in the Non-GAAP Measures section.) The major driver of the variance between Adjusted earnings and net income attributable to common stockholders for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was a $12.3 million gain from the sale of the Ardmore Seafarer in April 2024.

Consistent with the Company’s variable dividend policy of paying out dividends on its shares of common stock equal to one-third of Adjusted earnings, the Board of Directors declared a cash dividend on November 5, 2025, of $0.10 per common share for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. The dividend will be paid on December 12, 2025, to all shareholders of record on November 28, 2025.

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Energy leaders see strong demand ahead, warn on investment gaps

There are good signs for healthy oil demand going into 2026, energy industry leaders said on Monday at the ADIPEC energy conference in Abu Dhabi, after OPEC+ decided to pause output increases in the first quarter of next year.

When asked about the possibility of an oil glut in 2026, the United Arab Emirates’ Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said: “I am not going to talk about an oversupply scenario,” adding that “I think all of what we are seeing is more demand.”

OPEC Secretary-General said at the same event that there are good signs for demand and that surprises are not expected in the market.

“We are making sure we maintain the supply-demand balance,” Haitham Al Ghais said of Sunday’s OPEC+ decision.

OPEC+ countries, which include the UAE, agreed to increase December output targets, but halted the increases in the first quarter of 2026 to moderate plans to regain market share on fears of a supply glut.

New Western sanctions on OPEC+ member Russia are adding to the challenges, as Moscow may struggle to further raise output after the U.S. and Britain imposed fresh measures on top producers Rosneft and Lukoil.

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