The shipping industry has always been good at navigating uncertainty; however the rapid expansion of the shadow fleet represents a different kind of risk. It’s not just regulatory or geopolitical; it’s informational. Each vessel that goes dark removes a small piece of the world’s safety awareness, and that loss is beginning to matter, writes Yarden Gross, CEO and Co-founder of maritime technology pioneer Orca AI.
A PARALLEL SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF SIGHT
Concern over the shadow fleet’s growth is now being voiced at senior industry level. For example, Okeanis Eco Tankers CEO Aristidis Alafouzos recently argued that the trend is not only persistent but likely to accelerate. Indeed, another six tankers and four gas carriers were blacklisted by the US administration just last week, bringing the total of Iran-sanctioned vessels to 170. Including vessels carrying Russian oil, an estimated 16% of the global crude fleet is already blacklisted, and Alafouzos warns that sanction-driven rerouting, longer voyage times and increased congestion are stretching available capacity to the point where further expansion of the dark fleet is inevitable.
Experts suggest the true number of vessels operating outside conventional oversight could already exceed 3,000, some approaching end of life or operating without insurance. These vessels have been described as “ticking time bombs” that are unlikely to return to mainstream trades and in many cases are being run to exhaustion.
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