Iran’s tightening grip on the Strait of Hormuz has left global energy markets and shipping in turmoil, with The Financial Times reporting that a full reopening of the waterway in 2026 is unlikely.
Instead, countries such as India, China, Japan, and South Korea may be forced into bilateral deals with Tehran to secure passage, while legal and political disputes over Iran’s maritime claims deepen.
Energy and shipping disruption
According to The Financial Times, maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed by more than 90% from pre-conflict levels, as insurers withdraw coverage and war-risk premiums soar.
The chokepoint, which normally carries about 20% of global oil and LNG flows, has become nearly inaccessible to Western-flagged vessels.
Moody’s has warned that Asian importers will likely negotiate bilateral transit corridors with Iran, possibly through routes near Larak Island or via Omani waters, but a return to pre-war traffic volumes this year is improbable.
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